New poll shows billionaire tax falling behind as election nears

Californians’ appetite for a first-in-the-nation wealth tax appears to be waning.

With less than a week before Election Day, support for Proposition 40, a proposed billionaire tax, is now under water, according to the latest poll by Public Policy Institute of California. Published Tuesday, the survey found that 46% of 1,086 likely voters support the tax, while 52% don’t.

That’s a notable change from last month, when Prop. 40 proponents held a slim 52% majority. The billionaire tax is by far the biggest and most expensive fight on the ballot. As of mid-October, wealthy people who oppose it have raised more than $205 million to fight the tax, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has poured at least $102 million.

Still, Prop. 40 supporters remain undeterred. In response to the PPIC poll, Suzanne Jimenez, the chief of staff of Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the union behind the measure, said “large majorities of Democratic voters” continue to support it.

• Jimenez, in an email to CalMatters: “Even after months of the most controversial billionaires on the planet spending millions to spread misinformation about it, a clear majority of voters support asking about 250 billionaires to pay a modest, one-time tax to keep … healthcare affordable for millions of Californians.”

Meanwhile, a pair of related ballot measures intended to negate the billionaire tax could go either way.

Prop. 42, with 51% in support among those polled, holds onto a narrow lead. It would bar new taxes on personal property and assets and prohibit retroactive taxes. Prop. 41, which would impose limits to certain new state taxes, appears to be falling short with 48% support.

Voters seem to be more favorable on five other ballot measures. A majority of survey participants said they would vote yes on: 

• Prop. 1, the $11.25 billion housing bond
• Prop. 2, which would increase the amount of tax revenue the state can put in savings 
• Prop. 3, which would permanently extend an income tax for high-earning households 
• Prop. 37, which would create a $25 billion fund to help homebuyers
• Prop. 38, which would dedicate $8 billion in bonds to fund immunology research

As for the governor’s race, Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra continues his lead in the polls with PPIC reporting that 61% of likely voters would vote for him, compared to 37% for Republican Steve Hilton.

A federal judge appeared skeptical about the Trump administration’s demands that California set aside 20,000 ballots from alleged noncitizens, but won’t likely rule on the matter until after the Nov. 3 election, report CalMatters’ Ryan Sabalow and Nigel Duara.

In a potential setback for President Donald Trump, U.S. District Judge David O. Carter on Tuesday raised concerns that the administration’s efforts to stop noncitizens from illegally voting by ordering the state’s elections officials to sequester their ballots could disenfranchise “valid voters.” 

Though he’s expected to issue a formal ruling today, Carter’s final ruling might not come until after another hearing that will take place in two weeks. Carter also suggested that his ruling would prohibit federal authorities from threatening elections officials with criminal charges if they didn’t comply with Trump’s demands.

Read more.

Survivors of the Eaton and Palisades fires are running out of money to rebuild their lives, and the outcome of the midterm elections may affect whether federal aid will come, writes CalMatters’ Levi Sumagaysay.

Nearly two years since the fires ripped through the Los Angeles area, the Trump administration has been slow to release funding to California, and it didn’t include L.A. County wildfire relief in its budget request for Congress this summer. 

It’s also unclear when the billions of dollars in long-term disaster recovery money the state has requested will come — if at all. Last week, outlets reported that the Federal Emergency Management Agency told states they will need to handle most disasters themselves.

U.S. Reps. Judy Chu and Norma Torres, both Southern California Democrats, said that if Democrats flip the House in November, federal aid could roll out to California and other states hit by disaster.

Read more.

Luis Arreguin, a 54-year-old Fresno resident, was on his way to work as a skilled laborer on Oct. 1 when federal immigration enforcement agents arrested him. Sixteen days later, agents deported him to Mexico — where he hasn’t been since he was a kid — in a stunning example of the dizzying speed in which Trump’s deportation machine operates. Said Arreguin: “My whole life got destroyed.” Read more from CalMatters’ Wendy Fry.